Main
Lightweight
Gray Maynard vs Nate Diaz
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gray Maynard
Nate Diaz
34%
66%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
13-8-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
22-14
L1
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Maynard: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Diaz: 33 sig / 0 TD
Gray Maynard
Nate Diaz
38
Sig strikes landed
57
90
Sig strikes attempted
127
47
Total strikes landed
83
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
128s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gray Maynard
13-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
D
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Nate Diaz
22-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—