Prelims1
Featherweight
Rani Yahya vs Tom Niinimaki
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rani Yahya
Tom Niinimaki
64%
36%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
W3
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Yahya: 15 sig / 2 TD ·
Niinimaki: 17 sig / 4 TD
Rani Yahya
Tom Niinimaki
24
Sig strikes landed
22
53
Sig strikes attempted
54
50
Total strikes landed
40
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.7
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
289s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rani Yahya
29-12-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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Blue corner
Tom Niinimaki
"Stoneface"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31