Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Jared Rosholt vs Walt Harris

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jared Rosholt
Walt Harris
76% 24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosholt: 33 sig / 1 TD · Harris: 18 sig / 0 TD
Jared Rosholt
Walt Harris
33
Sig strikes landed
32
62
Sig strikes attempted
66
52
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jared Rosholt

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Walt Harris

"The Big Ticket"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31