Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Prelims1 Welterweight

Sean Spencer vs Drew Dober

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Sean Spencer
Drew Dober
38% 62%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
26
Age
Δ 1y
25
W1
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Spencer: 105 sig / 0 TD · Dober: 61 sig / 0 TD
Sean Spencer
Drew Dober
45
Sig strikes landed
48
129
Sig strikes attempted
113
57
Total strikes landed
59
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
57s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Sean Spencer

"Black Magic"
13-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
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L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
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Blue corner

Drew Dober

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25