Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Prelims2 Flyweight

Josh Sampo vs Ryan Benoit

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Josh Sampo
Ryan Benoit
55% 45%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
29
Age
Δ 5y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Sampo: 28 sig / 2 TD · Benoit: 18 sig / 0 TD
Josh Sampo
Ryan Benoit
37
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
81
51
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
160s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Josh Sampo

"The Gremlin"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Ryan Benoit

"Baby Face"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24