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Main Welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Ryan LaFlare

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 ·Goiania Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Ryan LaFlare
83% 17%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ponzinibbio: 25 sig / 0 TD · LaFlare: 75 sig / 5 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Ryan LaFlare
32
Sig strikes landed
28
63
Sig strikes attempted
133
47
Total strikes landed
60
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
87s
Control time
247s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Santiago Ponzinibbio

"Argentine Dagger"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
W1

Ryan LaFlare

15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
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