Main
Welterweight
Paulo Thiago vs Brandon Thatch
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
·Goiania Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Paulo Thiago
Brandon Thatch
49%
51%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
33
Age
Δ 4y
28
19-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Thiago: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Thatch: 12 sig / 0 TD
Paulo Thiago
Brandon Thatch
13
Sig strikes landed
20
30
Sig strikes attempted
44
22
Total strikes landed
30
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
116s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
15%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Paulo Thiago
19-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W1
Brandon Thatch
"Rukus"
12-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—