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Prelims1 Middleweight

Thiago Perpetuo vs Omari Akhmedov

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 ·Goiania Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Thiago Perpetuo
Omari Akhmedov
34% 66%
Why
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Perpetuo: 18 sig / 1 TD · Akhmedov: 14 sig / 1 TD
Thiago Perpetuo
Omari Akhmedov
43
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
90
61
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Thiago Perpetuo

"Bodao"
10-4-1
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner

Omari Akhmedov

"Wolverine"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26