Prelims1
Lightweight
Thiago Tavares vs Justin Salas
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
·Goiania Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Tavares
Justin Salas
80%
20%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
21-8-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
13-7
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tavares: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Salas: 4 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Tavares
Justin Salas
26
Sig strikes landed
23
59
Sig strikes attempted
56
44
Total strikes landed
38
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
226s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Tavares
21-8-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
Blue corner
W1
Justin Salas
"J-Bomb"
13-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—