Main
Light Heavyweight
Rafael Cavalcante vs Igor Pokrajac
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
·Goiania Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Cavalcante
Igor Pokrajac
32%
68%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
12-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
28-14
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cavalcante: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Pokrajac: 9 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Cavalcante
Igor Pokrajac
22
Sig strikes landed
31
41
Sig strikes attempted
60
29
Total strikes landed
52
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
69s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafael Cavalcante
"Feijao"
12-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
L2
Igor Pokrajac
"The Duke"
28-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—