Main
Middleweight
Cezar Ferreira vs Daniel Sarafian
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
·Goiania Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cezar Ferreira
Daniel Sarafian
65%
35%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
14-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-6
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ferreira: 15 sig / 3 TD ·
Sarafian: 21 sig / 0 TD
Cezar Ferreira
Daniel Sarafian
29
Sig strikes landed
17
64
Sig strikes attempted
39
36
Total strikes landed
22
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
73s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
14-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Daniel Sarafian
11-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—