Prelims1
Welterweight
Ildemar Alcantara vs Igor Araujo
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ildemar Alcantara
Igor Araujo
45%
55%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alcantara: 18 sig / 3 TD ·
Araujo: 21 sig / 1 TD
Ildemar Alcantara
Igor Araujo
32
Sig strikes landed
31
83
Sig strikes attempted
74
49
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ildemar Alcantara
"Marajo"
22-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
Igor Araujo
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33