Back to UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
Prelims1 Welterweight

Yan Cabral vs David Mitchell

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields ·Ginasio Jose Correa
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Yan Cabral
David Mitchell
49% 51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cabral: 18 sig / 4 TD · Mitchell: 5 sig / 0 TD
Yan Cabral
David Mitchell
37
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
83
58
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
120s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Yan Cabral

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L1

David Mitchell

"Daudi"
22-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
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