Main
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs TJ Dillashaw
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
TJ Dillashaw
62%
38%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
31
Age
Δ 4y
28
29-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-5
W4
Current streak
W4
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Assuncao: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Dillashaw: 29 sig / 2 TD
Raphael Assuncao
TJ Dillashaw
28
Sig strikes landed
36
65
Sig strikes attempted
73
45
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W4
TJ Dillashaw
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—