Prelims1
Flyweight
Iliarde Santos vs Chris Cariaso
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iliarde Santos
Chris Cariaso
68%
32%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
30-14-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-9
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Santos: 35 sig / 2 TD ·
Cariaso: 54 sig / 0 TD
Iliarde Santos
Chris Cariaso
33
Sig strikes landed
42
88
Sig strikes attempted
85
44
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Iliarde Santos
30-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
L2
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—