Main
Welterweight
Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Pierce
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rousimar Palhares
Mike Pierce
53%
47%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
34
Age
Δ 0y
33
19-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-7
L2
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Palhares: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Pierce: 2 sig / 1 TD
Rousimar Palhares
Mike Pierce
25
Sig strikes landed
26
47
Sig strikes attempted
55
36
Total strikes landed
49
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
220s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rousimar Palhares
"Toquinho"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
W4
Mike Pierce
18-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—