Main
Light Heavyweight
Fabio Maldonado vs Joey Beltran
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fabio Maldonado
Joey Beltran
76%
24%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
24-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-14
W1
Current streak
L3
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Maldonado: 87 sig / 0 TD ·
Beltran: 57 sig / 1 TD
Fabio Maldonado
Joey Beltran
84
Sig strikes landed
58
143
Sig strikes attempted
139
99
Total strikes landed
75
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
99s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Fabio Maldonado
"Caipira de Aco"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
Blue corner
L3
Joey Beltran
"The Mexicutioner"
17-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—