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Alan Patrick vs Garett Whiteley

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields ·Ginasio Jose Correa
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alan Patrick
Garett Whiteley
76% 24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Patrick: 16 sig / 1 TD · Whiteley: 7 sig / 0 TD
Alan Patrick
Garett Whiteley
37
Sig strikes landed
33
76
Sig strikes attempted
70
54
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Alan Patrick

"Nuguette"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner

Garett Whiteley

"Goodnight"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33