Main
Light Heavyweight
Thiago Silva vs Matt Hamill
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Silva
Matt Hamill
83%
17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
20-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
13-8
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Silva: 96 sig / 0 TD ·
Hamill: 70 sig / 3 TD
Thiago Silva
Matt Hamill
49
Sig strikes landed
47
117
Sig strikes attempted
106
61
Total strikes landed
61
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
81s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thiago Silva
20-6
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Hamill
"The Hammer"
13-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—