Back to UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Prelims2 Lightweight

Yves Edwards vs Yancy Medeiros

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 ·Fort Campbell
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Yves Edwards
Yancy Medeiros
72% 28%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
37
Age
Δ 11y
26
42-23-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-9
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Edwards: 19 sig / 0 TD · Medeiros: 25 sig / 0 TD
Yves Edwards
Yancy Medeiros
36
Sig strikes landed
27
84
Sig strikes attempted
86
48
Total strikes landed
33
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
137s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Yves Edwards

42-23-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
W UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
Blue corner
L1

Yancy Medeiros

15-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
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