Prelims2
Middleweight
Chris Camozzi vs Lorenz Larkin
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
·Fort Campbell
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Camozzi
Lorenz Larkin
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
24-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-7
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Camozzi: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Larkin: 46 sig / 0 TD
Chris Camozzi
Lorenz Larkin
51
Sig strikes landed
33
122
Sig strikes attempted
81
67
Total strikes landed
42
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chris Camozzi
24-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
Blue corner
L1
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—