Back to UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Prelims2 Welterweight

Neil Magny vs Seth Baczynski

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 ·Fort Campbell
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Seth Baczynski
82% 18%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
31-16
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-15
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magny: 31 sig / 2 TD · Baczynski: 28 sig / 3 TD
Neil Magny
Seth Baczynski
39
Sig strikes landed
29
78
Sig strikes attempted
76
54
Total strikes landed
48
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Neil Magny

"The Haitian Sensation"
31-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
L2

Seth Baczynski

"The Polish Pistola"
20-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
W UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—