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Colton Smith vs Michael Chiesa

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 ·Fort Campbell
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Colton Smith
Michael Chiesa
32% 68%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
7-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
20-8
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Smith: 4 sig / 2 TD · Chiesa: 7 sig / 1 TD
Colton Smith
Michael Chiesa
15
Sig strikes landed
25
41
Sig strikes attempted
56
26
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
40%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Colton Smith

7-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
Blue corner
L1

Michael Chiesa

"Maverick"
20-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—