Main
Lightweight
Jorge Masvidal vs Rustam Khabilov
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
·Fort Campbell
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
Rustam Khabilov
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
36-17
Career record
Δ 18 pp
25-4
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Masvidal: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Khabilov: 32 sig / 2 TD
Jorge Masvidal
Rustam Khabilov
21
Sig strikes landed
21
70
Sig strikes attempted
56
42
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W2
Rustam Khabilov
"Tiger"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—