Back to UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Prelims2 Middleweight

Derek Brunson vs Brian Houston

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 ·Fort Campbell
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Brian Houston
87% 13%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Brunson: 1 sig / 0 TD · Houston: 0 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Brian Houston
42
Sig strikes landed
26
105
Sig strikes attempted
65
84
Total strikes landed
48
3.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
277s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Derek Brunson

"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
Blue corner

Brian Houston

"B-Hue"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33