Prelims1
Middleweight
Luke Barnatt vs Andrew Craig
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz
·Manchester Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Luke Barnatt
Andrew Craig
71%
29%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
14-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
10-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Barnatt: 39 sig / 1 TD ·
Craig: 26 sig / 0 TD
Luke Barnatt
Andrew Craig
46
Sig strikes landed
50
101
Sig strikes attempted
119
73
Total strikes landed
66
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
78s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Luke Barnatt
"The Bigslow"
14-4
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W1
Andrew Craig
"Highlight"
10-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—