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Al Iaquinta vs Piotr Hallmann

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz ·Manchester Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Al Iaquinta
Piotr Hallmann
35% 65%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
15-7-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-6
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Iaquinta: 85 sig / 2 TD · Hallmann: 66 sig / 3 TD
Al Iaquinta
Piotr Hallmann
35
Sig strikes landed
43
90
Sig strikes attempted
100
39
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
36s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Al Iaquinta

"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
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L The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
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Blue corner
W1

Piotr Hallmann

"Pletwal"
19-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
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