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Alessio Sakara vs Nicholas Musoke

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz ·Manchester Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Alessio Sakara
Nicholas Musoke
50% 50%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
L3
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sakara: 20 sig / 1 TD · Musoke: 12 sig / 1 TD
Alessio Sakara
Nicholas Musoke
31
Sig strikes landed
35
66
Sig strikes attempted
67
42
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
65s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Alessio Sakara

"Legionarius"
19-12 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
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L UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
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L UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
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W UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
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Blue corner

Nicholas Musoke

"Nico"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28