Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Harris
John Lineker
16%
84%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
30
Age
Δ 7y
23
23-12
Career record
Δ 12 pp
32-9
W1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Harris: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Lineker: 31 sig / 0 TD
Phil Harris
John Lineker
31
Sig strikes landed
41
106
Sig strikes attempted
119
38
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
1.00
35s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Phil Harris
"Billy"
23-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
W3
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—