Prelims2
Welterweight
William Macario vs Bobby Voelker
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
William Macario
Bobby Voelker
73%
27%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
22
Age
Δ 12y
35
9-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
19-14
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Macario: 133 sig / 3 TD ·
Voelker: 61 sig / 0 TD
William Macario
Bobby Voelker
43
Sig strikes landed
38
95
Sig strikes attempted
93
63
Total strikes landed
67
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
190s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
William Macario
"Patolino"
9-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
L2
Bobby Voelker
"Vicious"
19-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—