Prelims2
Featherweight
Robert Peralta vs Estevan Payan
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robert Peralta
Estevan Payan
78%
22%
Why
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
18-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-13
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Peralta: 34 sig / 2 TD ·
Payan: 32 sig / 1 TD
Robert Peralta
Estevan Payan
48
Sig strikes landed
33
103
Sig strikes attempted
91
65
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
80s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Robert Peralta
"Problems"
18-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
Blue corner
L1
Estevan Payan
"El Terrible"
16-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—