Prelims1
Welterweight
John Howard vs Siyar Bahadurzada
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
John Howard
Siyar Bahadurzada
43%
57%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
25-13
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-9-1
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Howard: 47 sig / 3 TD ·
Bahadurzada: 44 sig / 1 TD
John Howard
Siyar Bahadurzada
25
Sig strikes landed
27
70
Sig strikes attempted
71
44
Total strikes landed
42
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Howard
"Doomsday"
25-13
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Siyar Bahadurzada
"The Great"
24-9-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—