Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Fabricio Camoes
89%
11%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
39-19
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-10-1
W1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Miller: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Camoes: 11 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Fabricio Camoes
34
Sig strikes landed
20
74
Sig strikes attempted
59
50
Total strikes landed
36
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
137s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
55%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Fabricio Camoes
"Morango"
14-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—