Main
Featherweight
Dustin Poirier vs Diego Brandao
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Diego Brandao
82%
18%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
64"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
31-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-11
W1
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Poirier: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Brandao: 16 sig / 1 TD
Dustin Poirier
Diego Brandao
39
Sig strikes landed
29
77
Sig strikes attempted
69
61
Total strikes landed
41
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W3
Diego Brandao
"DB"
23-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—