Prelims1
Featherweight
Dennis Siver vs Manvel Gamburyan
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dennis Siver
Manvel Gamburyan
71%
29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
23-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-10
L1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Siver: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Gamburyan: 14 sig / 3 TD
Dennis Siver
Manvel Gamburyan
54
Sig strikes landed
41
124
Sig strikes attempted
103
74
Total strikes landed
60
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
6.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
99s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dennis Siver
23-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W2
Manvel Gamburyan
"The Anvil"
16-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—