Prelims1
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau vs Michael Johnson
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gleison Tibau
Michael Johnson
83%
17%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
28
34-14
Career record
Δ 14 pp
26-20
W2
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Tibau: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 22 sig / 0 TD
Gleison Tibau
Michael Johnson
35
Sig strikes landed
47
114
Sig strikes attempted
110
51
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
121s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gleison Tibau
34-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—