Main
Flyweight
Tim Elliott vs Ali Bagautinov
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Ali Bagautinov
51%
49%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
27
Age
Δ 2y
28
23-14-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-6
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 48 sig / 2 TD ·
Bagautinov: 43 sig / 1 TD
Tim Elliott
Ali Bagautinov
40
Sig strikes landed
46
113
Sig strikes attempted
96
62
Total strikes landed
60
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
88s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tim Elliott
23-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
Blue corner
W1
Ali Bagautinov
"Puncher"
16-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
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