Prelims1
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone vs Evan Dunham
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Evan Dunham
79%
21%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
36-18
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-10-1
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cerrone: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Dunham: 24 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Evan Dunham
68
Sig strikes landed
50
147
Sig strikes attempted
135
76
Total strikes landed
75
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
27s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
Blue corner
L1
Evan Dunham
18-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—