Prelims1
Middleweight
Ed Herman vs Thales Leites
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ed Herman
Thales Leites
29%
71%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
28-16
Career record
Δ 13 pp
29-9
W4
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Herman: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Leites: 20 sig / 3 TD
Ed Herman
Thales Leites
23
Sig strikes landed
32
50
Sig strikes attempted
60
44
Total strikes landed
58
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
51s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Thales Leites
29-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—