Prelims1
Welterweight
Brian Ebersole vs Rick Story
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brian Ebersole
Rick Story
93%
7%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
51-19-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-10
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ebersole: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Story: 71 sig / 2 TD
Brian Ebersole
Rick Story
38
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
81
60
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
51-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
L1
Rick Story
"The Horror"
19-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—