Back to UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Sarah Kaufman vs Jessica Eye

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sarah Kaufman
Jessica Eye
77% 23%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Kaufman: 87 sig / 0 TD · Eye: 65 sig / 0 TD
Sarah Kaufman
Jessica Eye
42
Sig strikes landed
36
82
Sig strikes attempted
79
74
Total strikes landed
64
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sarah Kaufman

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Jessica Eye

"Evil"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27