Back to UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Prelims1 Welterweight

Nate Marquardt vs Hector Lombard

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Nate Marquardt
Hector Lombard
36% 64%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
34
Age
Δ 1y
36
35-20-2
Career record
Δ 13 pp
34-11-1
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Marquardt: 4 sig / 0 TD · Lombard: 10 sig / 0 TD
Nate Marquardt
Hector Lombard
25
Sig strikes landed
24
55
Sig strikes attempted
54
41
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Nate Marquardt

"The Great"
35-20-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
L UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
L UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1

Hector Lombard

34-11-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
L UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—