Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
John Dodson
Darrell Montague
58%
42%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dodson: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Montague: 10 sig / 0 TD
John Dodson
Darrell Montague
41
Sig strikes landed
42
97
Sig strikes attempted
97
57
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
22-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
Darrell Montague
"Mongoose"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26