Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tim Boetsch
CB Dollaway
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
21-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
18-9
L2
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Boetsch: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Dollaway: 57 sig / 3 TD
Tim Boetsch
CB Dollaway
33
Sig strikes landed
29
64
Sig strikes attempted
66
52
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
110s
Control time
212s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
Blue corner
W2
CB Dollaway
"The Doberman"
18-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—