Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gabriel Gonzaga
Shawn Jordan
34%
66%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
18-11
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-8
W1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gonzaga: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Jordan: 2 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Gonzaga
Shawn Jordan
19
Sig strikes landed
26
45
Sig strikes attempted
46
30
Total strikes landed
42
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
88s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
18-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W2
Shawn Jordan
"The Savage"
20-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—