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Prelims2 Featherweight

Jeremy Larsen vs Andre Fili

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jeremy Larsen
Andre Fili
25% 75%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
29
Age
Δ 6y
23
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Larsen: 23 sig / 1 TD · Fili: 55 sig / 1 TD
Jeremy Larsen
Andre Fili
26
Sig strikes landed
42
59
Sig strikes attempted
86
38
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
121s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jeremy Larsen

8-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner

Andre Fili

"Touchy"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23