Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Mike Rio
79%
21%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
26-12
Career record
Δ 6 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ferguson: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Rio: 4 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
Mike Rio
42
Sig strikes landed
26
90
Sig strikes attempted
68
58
Total strikes landed
33
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
74s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mike Rio
"The Wolverine"
10-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—