Back to UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Dustin Pague vs Kyoji Horiguchi

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 ·Toyota Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dustin Pague
Kyoji Horiguchi
6% 94%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 12"
63"
26
Age
Δ 3y
23
L3
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pague: 9 sig / 1 TD · Horiguchi: 30 sig / 1 TD
Dustin Pague
Kyoji Horiguchi
18
Sig strikes landed
32
46
Sig strikes attempted
58
29
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
107s
Control time
253s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
40%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Dustin Pague

"The Disciple"
12-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner

Kyoji Horiguchi

"Karate Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23