Prelims2
Welterweight
TJ Waldburger vs Adlan Amagov
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
TJ Waldburger
Adlan Amagov
44%
56%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
26
Age
Δ 2y
27
17-9
Career record
Δ 18 pp
15-2-1
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Waldburger: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Amagov: 15 sig / 0 TD
TJ Waldburger
Adlan Amagov
24
Sig strikes landed
26
56
Sig strikes attempted
62
37
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
150s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
TJ Waldburger
17-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
W1
Adlan Amagov
"Borz"
15-2-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—