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Gilbert Melendez vs Diego Sanchez

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Gilbert Melendez
Diego Sanchez
46% 54%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
22-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
32-13
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Melendez: 96 sig / 1 TD · Sanchez: 42 sig / 1 TD
Gilbert Melendez
Diego Sanchez
40
Sig strikes landed
43
130
Sig strikes attempted
118
55
Total strikes landed
69
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.9
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
80s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Gilbert Melendez

"El Nino"
22-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W1

Diego Sanchez

"Nightmare"
32-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
L UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
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W UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
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L UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
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